For twenty-five years, global leaders have gathered to discuss the threat of climate change. These events, (Conference of Parties) have resulted in a variety of statements, protocols and many good intentions, but emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, global temperatures increase and the natural environment continues to be destroyed at a rate that threatens half the species on the planet.
So here we are again. COP26. World leaders meet in Glasgow to discuss the crisis facing the planet. Are we optimistic that they will, finally, take action to prevent a climate catastrophe – or is there an oppressive sense that, once again, the difficult political choices will be side-stepped?
In order to judge success, perhaps it is worth defining the issues that need to be addressed at COP26. The absolute priority is to ensure that global temperatures do not pass the 1.5° C threshold. This means that we have to dramatically reduce carbon emissions. We also have to stop destroying the natural environment that is essential in the process of removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
COP26 will be judged a success if it achieves legally binding commitments on national limits, underpinned by agreement on how emissions will be measured and enforced. The second measure of success will be commitments to stop the destruction of the natural environment, particularly the rain forests. But these commitments will not be fulfilled unless five key issues are addressed:
- Reform the global economic model
- Incentivise sustainable consumer behaviour
- Reform political influence
- Green growth
- Global dependency on oil
To expand on each of these issues:
1. The global economic model:
Resources are finite, populations are growing and economic success is measured by growth in GDP. This economic model is unsustainable. Even if the threat of climate change did not exist, things still have to change. COP26 needs to acknowledge that our economic model has to be reformed. COP26 is an opportunity for world leaders to acknowledged that the pursuit of ever-greater economic growth is unsustainable. At a more detailed level there needs to be a commitment that business activity has to account for economic costs. Environmental costing is complex, and in the short term, the best that we might hope for is a commitment to tax a specific group of unsustainably produced resources such as timber, palm oil, soya, and animal products. Whilst not offering a complete solution it would demonstrate that world leaders recognise that environmental costs have to be accounted for.
2. Incentivise sustainable consumer behaviour
Governments have an opportunity to incentivise sustainable behaviours and discourage environmentally damaging behaviours. COP26 needs to define a set of principles that underpin how governments formulate polices on; energy, transport, industry, building regulations, farming and the disposal of products. Individual governments will then need to implement policies, consistent with the principles, that guide and encourage sustainable consumer behaviours.
3. Reform political influence
Corporate vested interests are able to exert strong influence on governments, resulting in protection and support for industry sectors that are driving climate change and environmental destruction. It would be a landmark achievement if the leaders at COP26 were to draft regulations that would require, at a minimum, transparency on the political influence of vested interests and ideally, to ban the activities of lobbying by organisations that operate in specific industry sectors.
4. Green growth
It has become fashionable for governments to proclaim that they want to create ‘green jobs’. No doubt, this aspiration is genuinely meant, but the reality is that many governments give disproportionate support to the fossil fuel sector. As we stand at the tail-end of 2021 there is a desperate need to re-invigorate economies but the concern is that resources may go to traditional sectors, rather than a significant shift to green industries. A template for green growth is provided within the concepts presented by ‘The Green New Deal’. The leaders at COP26 have an opportunity to commit to actions consistent with these ideals.
5. Global dependency on oil
A shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy will have a dramatic impact on countries such as those in the Middle East, North Africa, South and North America, Russia, … you get the picture. It is imperative that COP26 sets out a strategy for transition that will mitigate the disruption to global trade and avoids an escalation in geo-political tensions.
These five issues represent a radical transformation of our social, political and economic models. It will require governments to offer their electorate a positive vision for a sustainable society. It will require raising awareness of the reasons why change is necessary. It will also require people to understand the alternative scenarios that will result if we fail to address the climate emergency.
A process of global transformation will not be easy but it does begin with a commitment by leaders to take urgent action. It also requires that they understand the issues that need to be addressed. We wait to see the outcomes of the discussions in Glasgow at the beginning of November.